Social Machines: The Coming Collision of Artificial Intelligence, Social Networking, and Humanity by James Hendler


1658744a0f039aa-261x361.jpg Author James Hendler
Isbn 9781484211571
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Year 2016
Pages 174
Language English
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Category engineering and technology



 

Social Machines The Coming Collision of Artificial Intelligence, Social Networking, and Humanity James Hendler Alice M. Mulvehill Social Machines: The Coming Collision of Artificial Intelligence, Social Networking, and Humanity James Hendler Albany, New York, USA Alice M. Mulvehill Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA ISBN-13 (pbk): 978-1-4842-1157-1 DOI 10.1007/978-1-4842-1156-4 ISBN-13 (electronic): 978-1-4842-1156-4 Library of Congress Control Number: 2016950738 Copyright © 2016 by James Hendler and Alice M. Mulvehill This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. 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Managing Director: Welmoed Spahr Lead Editor: Robert Hutchinson Technical Reviewer: Lee Spector Editorial Board: Steve Anglin, Pramila Balan, Laura Berendson, Aaron Black, Louise Corrigan, Jonathan Gennick, Robert Hutchinson, Celestin Suresh John, Nikhil Karkal, James Markham, Susan McDermott, Matthew Moodie, Natalie Pao, Gwenan Spearing Coordinating Editor: Melissa Maldonado Copy Editor: Mary Behr Compositor: SPi Global Indexer: SPi Global Artist: SPi Global Distributed to the book trade worldwide by Springer Science+Business Media New York, 233 Spring Street, 6th Floor, New York, NY 10013. Phone 1-800-SPRINGER, fax (201) 348-4505, e-mail [email protected], or visit www.springeronline.com. Apress Media, LLC is a California LLC and the sole member (owner) is Springer Science + Business Media Finance Inc (SSBM Finance Inc). SSBM Finance Inc is a Delaware corporation. For information on translations, please e-mail [email protected], or visit www.apress.com. Apress and friends of ED books may be purchased in bulk for academic, corporate, or promotional use. eBook versions and licenses are also available for most titles. For more information, reference our Special Bulk Sales–eBook Licensing web page at www.apress.com/bulk-sales. Any source code or other supplementary materials referenced by the author in this text are available to readers at www.apress.com/9781484211571. For detailed information about how to locate your book’s source code, go to www.apress.com/source-code/. Readers can also access source code at SpringerLink in the Supplementary Material section for each chapter. Printed on acid-free paper Jim: To Marjorie Hendler, Terry Horowit, and Sharone Horowit-Hendler. Alice: To Robert, Irwin, and Ray. Together: To Michael Dean, a much-missed colleague and friend to us both. Contents at a Glance About the Authors............................................................................. xi About the Technical Reviewer ........................................................ xiii Acknowledgments ........................................................................... xv ■Chapter 1: Introduction: Why This Book? ....................................... 3 ■Chapter 2: Who Will Be Your Next Doctor? ................................... 15 ■Chapter 3: The Games We Play ..................................................... 31 ■Chapter 4: The Limits of Humans ................................................. 59 ■Chapter 5: What Computers Can’t Do–Yet .................................... 73 ■Chapter 6: Augmenting Human Capabilities with AI .................... 99 ■Chapter 7: Social Machines: Embracing the Blur ....................... 115 ■Chapter 8: Social Challenges for the Social Machine ................. 139 ■Chapter 9: Conclusion: Social Machines and the New Future ...... 165 Index .............................................................................................. 169 v Contents About the Authors............................................................................. xi About the Technical Reviewer ........................................................ xiii Acknowledgments ........................................................................... xv ■Chapter 1: Introduction: Why This Book? ....................................... 3 Who Are the Authors? .............................................................................. 4 Why Read This Book? .............................................................................. 5 A Brief History of AI ................................................................................. 7 Social Machines ...................................................................................... 9 Risks and Challenges ............................................................................ 10 What Lies Ahead for the Reader ............................................................ 11 What This Book Is Not About................................................................................... 13 ■Chapter 2: Who Will Be Your Next Doctor? ................................... 15 Going to the Doctor ............................................................................... 15 Could an Intelligent Computer Be Your Next Doctor? ............................ 17 The Situation Today ................................................................................................ 17 The Not Too Distant Future .................................................................... 17 Cognitive Computing Technology............................................................................ 18 From Individual to Network .................................................................................... 21 Other AI Systems in Healthcare .............................................................................. 22 So Who Will Be Your Next Doctor? ......................................................... 27 vii ■ CONTENTS ■Chapter 3: The Games We Play ..................................................... 31 Obvious Differences? ............................................................................ 31 Computers Play Chess ............................................................................................ 34 Starting Simple: Tic-tac-toe.................................................................................... 36 From Tic-Tac-Toe to Chess ..................................................................................... 41 Why Computers Are Good at Chess ........................................................................ 45 Go, the Current Challenge...................................................................... 48 Other Games ........................................................................................................... 50 How Do Humans Play Games?................................................................................ 54 Beyond Games ........................................................................................................ 57 ■Chapter 4: The Limits of Humans ................................................. 59 Problem Solving .................................................................................... 59 Memory and Aging.................................................................................................. 62 Emotion and Stress ............................................................................... 64 Socialization and Mobility....................................................................................... 67 Can Machines Augment Human Limits?................................................ 69 ■Chapter 5: What Computers Can’t Do–Yet .................................... 73 Getting Machines to Understand the Way People Use Language .......... 74 Ambiguity in Language ........................................................................................... 77 Understanding the World We Live In ....................................................................... 81 Understanding What They Perceive ....................................................... 87 The Problem of Context .......................................................................................... 89 What About Creativity? .......................................................................... 96 ■Chapter 6: Augmenting Human Capabilities with AI .................... 99 Human Enhancements: Now and the Near Future ................................ 99 Enhanced Problem Solving ................................................................................... 100 Fatigue and Stress .............................................................................. 101 viii ■ CONTENTS Individualized Support Technology ...................................................... 103 Building User Interfaces ...................................................................... 105 Human Enhancements: Near Future and Beyond ................................ 107 Personal Assistants ............................................................................. 108 Enhancing Memory ............................................................................. 110 Beyond the Individual ........................................................................................... 111 ■Chapter 7: Social Machines: Embracing the Blur ....................... 115 Human Computation............................................................................ 118 Games with a Purpose and Citizen Science ........................................ 121 Wikipedia: The People’s Encyclopedia................................................. 126 Artificial Intelligence Needs Social Machines ..................................... 131 Watson and Wikipedia .......................................................................................... 131 Deep Learning and Labeled Data.......................................................................... 133 Social Machines Need AI ..................................................................... 135 ■Chapter 8: Social Challenges for the Social Machine ................. 139 The Technology Development Cycle .................................................... 140 Technology for the Individual ................................................................................ 141 AI Technology and Warfare ................................................................................... 146 Managing Cognitive Support Technology.............................................................. 153 Extending and Maintaining Cognitive Computing Technology .............................. 156 The Limits of Learning .......................................................................................... 158 The Wisdom of the Crowd or the Madness of the Mob ....................... 161 ■Chapter 9: Conclusion: Social Machines and the New Future ...... 165 Index .............................................................................................. 169 ix About the Authors James Hendler is the Director of the Institute for Data Exploration and Applications and the Tetherless World Professor of Computer, Web, and Cognitive Sciences at RPI. He also serves as a Director of the UK’s charitable Web Science Trust. Hendler has authored over 350 books, technical papers, and articles in the areas of Semantic Web, artificial intelligence, agent-based computing, and high performance processing. One of the originators of the “Semantic Web,” Hendler was the recipient of a 1995 Fulbright Foundation Fellowship, is a former member of the US Air Force Science Advisory Board, and is a Fellow of the American Association for Artificial Intelligence, the British Computer Society, the IEEE, and the AAAS. He is also the former Chief Scientist of the Information Systems Office at the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and was awarded a US Air Force Exceptional Civilian Service Medal in 2002. He is also the first computer scientist to serve on the Board of Reviewing editors for Science. In 2010, Hendler was named one of the 20 most innovative professors in America by Playboy magazine and was selected as an “Internet Web Expert” by the US government. In 2012, he was one of the inaugural recipients of the Strata Conference “Big Data” awards for his work on large-scale open government data, and he is a columnist and associate editor of the Big Data journal. In 2013, he was appointed as the Open Data Advisor to New York State and in 2015 was appointed a member of the US Homeland Security Science and Technology Advisory Committee, and in 2016 became a member of the US National Academy Board on Research Data and Information. Alice M. Mulvehill is a research scientist and provides consulting through her company, Memory Based Research, LLC. She was previously a lead scientist at Raytheon/BBN Technologies where she led the development of several advanced decision support systems for the Air Force and DARPA. Prior to joining BBN she worked for The MITRE Corporation as a researcher, specializing in knowledge acquisition, knowledge representation, case-based reasoning, and planning. While at MITRE she was part of early research teams that explored the use of Artificial Intelligence techniques for the development of planning and scheduling systems. She was a participant xi ■ ABOUT THE AUTHORS in the DARPA/Rome Lab Planning Initiative and participated in the development of operationally-oriented AI-based systems for DARPA, the Air Force, and NASA. She has authored or co-authored numerous technical papers in the areas of knowledge acquisition and representation, model development, and adaptation; case-based reasoning; Semantic Web technology; and applications of these technologies to support logistics, planning, and prediction. She is a senior member of the Association for Artificial Intelligence and a member of IEEE and ACM. She currently provides consulting services to support the research and development of advanced information system technology and has an adjunct position at the University of Pittsburgh’s School of Nursing, where she provides guest lectures on technology. Mulvehill took her PhD in Information Science from the University of Pittsburgh. xii About the Technical Reviewer Lee Spector is a Professor of Computer Science at the School of Cognitive Science at Hampshire College in Amherst, Massachusetts, and an adjunct professor at the College of Information and Computer Sciences at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. He received a B.A. in Philosophy from Oberlin College in 1984 and a Ph.D. from the Department of Computer Science at the University of Maryland in 1992. His areas of teaching and research include genetic and evolutionary computation, quantum computation, and a variety of intersections between computer science, cognitive science, evolutionary biology, and the arts. He is the Editor-in-Chief of the journal Genetic Programming and Evolvable Machines (published by Springer) and a member of the editorial board of Evolutionary Computation (published by MIT Press). He is also a member of the ACM SIGEVO executive committee, and he was named a Fellow of the International Society for Genetic and Evolutionary Computation. xiii Acknowledgments This book represents many years of each of us working with many wonderful people who have been mentors, colleagues, students, friends, and so much more. To try to list everyone would be impossible, but there are a few people we’d each like to thank specifically for either directly supporting the writing of this book or for helping us to develop the knowledge that was required to put it together. From Jim: I would like to thank Dr. Shirley Ann Jackson, who took the chance on bringing me to Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) in 2007, freeing me to explore many new directions in AI and related fields. Through the RPI connection, I have met many members of the IBM Watson team, people working on Deep Learning and Cognitive Computing, and particularly Dr. John Kelly, whose book Smart Machines: IBM’s Watson and the Era of Cognitive Computing (Columbia Business School Publishing, 2013) will be a wonderful companion volume to those who like this one. RPI also allowed me to create the “Tetherless World Research Constellation,” with my great colleagues, Deborah McGuinness and Peter Fox. More recently, the Rensselaer Institute for Data Exploration and Applications has let me interact with VP of Research Jon Dordick and other Institute Wide Research Initiative leaders Chris Carothers, Robert Hull, Hui Su, and Deepak Vashishth (as well as all the Deans, department heads, program directors, faculty, and staff ). I also want to thank many RPI staff but particularly Jacqueline Carley, Michele Murray, Melissa Anderson, and Tanya Rautine, without whom I’d be too busy doing paperwork to ever have found time to get this book done. I also want to thank Michele Owens, who gave me lots of great advice about writing a non-fiction book, and Andrew Hugill, for explaining the ‘pataphysical aspect of much of this work. For two decades, I was at the University of Maryland, and I thank the many colleagues there who encouraged me as I rose through the academic ranks. I also want to thank many colleagues who gave me inspiration in writing this book with respect to AI and social machines, these include: Guru Banavar, Sir Tim Berners-Lee, Selmer Bringsjord Noshir Contractor, David DeRoure, Ed Feigenbaum, Joan Feigenbaum, Jennifer Golbeck, Dame Wendy Hall, Subbarao Kambhampati, Jon Kleinberg, Beth Noveck, Sir Nigel Shadbolt, Elena Simperl, Ben Shneiderman, Frank van Harmelen, Luis von Ahn, Daniel Weitzner, and others I am sure I am forgetting (my apologies). The Babylonian Talmud contains the following words of wisdom: “I learned much from my teachers, more from my colleagues, but from my students most of all” (Ta’anith 7a). That is totally true, and to list all the teachers and colleagues I should mention would take up too many pages. There’s also not enough room to thank all my students1, but I can’t 1 See my home page, www.cs.rpi.edu/~hendler, which lists the many PhD and masters students I have learned so much from! xv ■ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS imagine a better set of people to have worked so closely with over all these years. Finding funding for all the students has required support from many agencies and companies, with particular thanks to IBM, Lockheed Martin, BBN, Microsoft Research, Fujitsu Labs of America, Elsevier, GlobalFoundries, and The MITRE Corporation, who have directly funded my research over the years. From Alice: I would like to thank the many people who have journeyed with me along my AI research path. First, I would like to acknowledge the members of the AI group that I was part of while at the The MITRE Corporation in Bedford, MA. We learned a lot from each other while having fun exploring the many new languages and tools of the day. I specifically want to thank Steve Christey who worked tirelessly with me to implement several systems. I would like to also thank my colleagues from BBN Technologies, especially Ted Kral and Ed Campbell who mentored and helped me to explore new domains. Although many of the people from BBN that I worked with both supported and influenced my work, without the excellent engineering and programming skills of Dave Rager, Clint Hyde, Mary Kennedy, and Brett Benyo many of my ideas would never have seen the light of day. I want to thank my many DARPA, NASA, and AFRL program managers for funding and belief in me. Lastly, I want to thank the many domain experts, you know who you are, who let me into their heads and helped me sufficiently understand their needs and computational styles so that my team could create sophisticated, yet useful AI systems. Together: We would both like to thank many people who have supported our work over the years. A special thanks to David Brown who introduced us to each other and suggested we work together, and to Steve Cross, Nort Fowler, Don Roberts, and many others of the (D)Arpa/Rome Labs planning initiative, and our friends at Air Force Research Labs, and particularly Rick Metzger, who has worked with us both on many projects. Thanks also to our many colleagues, and funders, at the Army Research Laboratories, Office of Naval Research, Air Force Office of Scientific Research, National Science Foundation, NASA, NGA, NSA, DARPA, and IARPA. We also thank the many people at Apress Media LLC who helped us in preparing the manuscript, especially Mark Powers, and our agent, Carole Jelen. Finally, Jim adds this one: My best friend growing up, Jack Pressman, passed away way too early and isn’t here to help me celebrate completion of this manuscript. Over two decades ago I told him if I ever got a book done I’d acknowledge our calculus teacher, Mr. Kurt Ritterman of Stuyvesant High School, so here’s to him as well. xvi CHAPTER 1 Introduction: Why This Book? It is often said that the expression “May you live in interesting times!” is an ancient Chinese curse. In reality this story is probably apocryphal, but the notion behind it is not: times of great change can produce great opportunities, but also significant personal stress or major societal upheaval. Many things can cause change, but technological innovation is often a facilitator. And one challenge for people during times of change is understanding the realities of these technologies. It is a tough challenge to separate out the hype generated by those who stand to gain financially and otherwise from the truth of what is actually being achieved. News media and social networking sites offer little help; the reporters are often no more versed in the technologies than the people for whom they are writing. The optimists among them see reasons for hope. The pessimists, reasons for fear. And the truth, when it is finally found, usually lies in a more nuanced space, somewhere between the two. We are currently living in interesting times. While there are many reasons for this, this is definitely one of those eras where rapid technological advances are propelling the change. The past 50 years have increasingly seen the advance of computers into more and more of our lives, but the past decade or so has been exceptional. Computers have moved from our workspaces to our homes and now to our day-to-day lives. They have entered our social spaces to where they now can be found in our cars, our phones, and our houses. Personal assistant programs that used to require typing sentences into our desktop can now be invoked by name. Whether at home or away, inside or out, we have Siri, Alexa, and soon a new friend named Viv, who are becoming increasingly useful, but also increasingly ubiquitous. Getting Amazon’s Alexa to turn off your bedroom lights no longer requires anything other than that you ask. Propelling much of this increasing incursion of machines into our social lives are two interwoven technologies. The first is that of social networking; machines let us interact with friends, acquaintances, and even strangers through applications like Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat, RenRen, Weibo, and dozens of others. In the US, it is now said that upwards of 40% of those getting married met their spouses through an online dating site. Where restaurants used to ask patrons to turn off their computers, nowadays tablet devices are being built into the dining tables of even posh eateries to make it easier for their patrons to avoid going connectionless. Our social lives are increasingly connected, and that doesn’t look like a trend that is going away anytime soon. © James Hendler and Alice M. Mulvehill 2016 J. Hendler and A. M. Mulvehill, Social Machines, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4842-1156-4_1 3 CHAPTER 1 ■ INTRODUCTION: WHY THIS BOOK? However, for all their ubiquity, social networks still are primarily about allowing people to interact with each other. But that is changing; because of new breakthroughs in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), more and more the “person” on the other end of the connection is a computer. This includes technologies that allow computers to react to what people say, and to answer in increasingly natural and useful ways. Powered by AI, the IBM program Watson beat two of the world’s best players at the famous television gameshow Jeopardy!. Powered by AI, a computer, programmed by a team from Google, recently beat one of the world’s best players at the game of Go. Self-driving cars have gone from science fiction to daily reality, with over 30 automakers competing to see whose vehicles will be the first to be successfully sold without a steering wheel. And indeed, the challenge in this time of change, as in so many others, is understanding these technologies and the realities of how they are impacting the world in which we live. It is indeed currently a challenge to separate out the hype generated by many companies big and small. News media sites indeed offer little help, as reporters struggle to understand the technologies. Optimists see reasons for hope; perhaps these new AI technologies will make life better for all of us; Pessimists, reasons for fear: is the robot apocalypse about to start? The next decades are going to see major changes in society wrought by the increasingly connected nature of our social existence and the AI technology that is accelerating that change at a rapid rate. In this book, we hope to help you to understand enough about the AI technology underlying this disruption to navigate through these changing times. Those of you who tend towards the optimistic will learn enough to understand what is realistically promised. Those of you who tend towards the pessimist will see what some of the real challenges are. And indeed, the truth, for at least the foreseeable future, lies in a more nuanced space somewhere between the two, a space this book intends to help you find. Who Are the Authors? The idea of social networking long predates the computational systems currently in use. In the real world, meeting people through school, work, and community is a powerful way to bring together people, sometimes from disparate backgrounds, to share concepts and form relationships. Our collaboration on this book is due to such real world social networking. Our paths initially crossed in the early 1990s while we were both involved in a project sponsored by the US Department of Defense’s research programs. We were working on a project called the (D)ARPA/Rome Laboratory Planning Initiative (ARPI)1 and were asked by our sponsors to integrate the work that we were each independently doing. We have continued to cross paths many times since then due to our mutual research interests in artificial intelligence and related topics such as networking, semantic markup, analysis, decision support technology, and big data. While we are both interested in building sophisticated, useful, and smart machines, our approaches and specialties are different, yet complementary; one is more focused on algorithms, mathematical 1 Tate, Austin (Editor); “Advanced Planning Technology: Technological Achievements of the ARPA/ Rome Laboratory Planning Initiative”, May 29-31, 1996, Edinburgh, Scotland. Published by The AAAI Press, Menlo Park, California. 4 CHAPTER 1 ■ INTRODUCTION: WHY THIS BOOK? formalisms, and big data, and the other is more focused on how AI and other technologies can work together to support humans. Where Jim’s focus has been on building new technologies, Alice’s has been on making sure those technologies can help real people solve the problems that confront them. Where Alice is also a talented artist, as you will see from many of her watercolors that grace the pages of this book, Jim’s hobby is catching up on his e-mail and tinkering with the latest gadget his students have brought into the lab. Yet despite, or maybe because of, our differences in perspective, we both felt it was time to write this book. This is because we each see an accelerating pace of societal change caused by the very technologies we have been working with for so long. The term social machines has been used to describe many things, and we will discuss them throughout the book, but most importantly, it represents the concept at the nexus of the increasing convergence of artificial intelligence, social networking, and human cognition. As the pace accelerates, these technologies, and their applications, come more and more into contact with each other and with us. Looking for a term that could convey the speed and impact of the changes we are living through, we hit upon the one that graces the title of this book: collision. We see this potential clash between AI, social networking, and humanity because we have been part of the research that is forcing the collision. We hope that our different perspectives will provide the reader with a better understanding of what social machines in the future will look like, where they have come from, what some of the remaining problems are, and why we can’t ignore the fact that this collision is already happening and that it will have profound impacts on our humanity. Why Read This Book? This book is intended to educate the reader about how tools and products, developed from the perspective of the science of AI, have been, are, and will continue to influence each of us as individuals. We will explore these technologies and how, through them, we interact with our environment (which now includes more and more of these intelligent computing devices), and how we interact with others (both the human and the artificial) within larger societal networks. We will describe how AI technologies are becoming more available and more capable because of improvements in hardware, software, and the infrastructure that these tools use for communication. This infrastructure is the World Wide Web, which has had a major impact on personal and social interactions. It has also enhanced communications between us and many different types of computing technologies, in effect creating an online society or social machine. Using a computer or smartphone application to communicate and network with friends, family, colleagues, or the world in general is now a common practice. The current availability of many different types of computers and smartphones, and the ease of operation that is now provided, has resulted in our world being much more networked and “online.” This ability to easily communicate with others in our society regardless of time, geographical location, and social or economic status is the basis of the social machine. Computer technology currently helps many of us to schedule meetings, share personal experiences and pictures, learn, play, and participate in discussions with people all over the world, and even with people that we don’t personally know. In fact, many of us find it hard to go a day, let alone an hour, without checking our e-mail, texts, tweets, Facebook updates, and so on. We are already a wired society, and this computerized 5 CHAPTER 1 ■ INTRODUCTION: WHY THIS BOOK? interface between us and the things in our lives, like our homes and cars, will continue to increase as the technology is enhanced and utilized. As we look to the future, we see that our dependency on computer technology to support the many facets of our lives will also continue to increase. We are already accepting and even relying on technology that, just 10 years ago, we would never have readily used. As our trust in technology has increased, our tendency to use technology to help us travel, manage our finances, analyze medical results, navigate our cars, and schedule our lives has also increased. Many of these technologies are powered by AI, and as our dependency on technology evolves, we expect that more AI-based technologies will become available and incorporated into our lives. We are already starting to see AI-based, cognitive computing technology available for personal assistance and that is a trend that is going to continue at an accelerating pace. While most people seem willing to embrace the benefits offered by our wired technology, many are not aware of how the technologies work, and of some of the potential problems that are not yet resolved. It is hard to understand why it is difficult for a computer to understand the context of a question or why it is important to ensure the privacy of an individual’s personal data during online transactions. Most people do not understand what AI is and many are not even aware that they are already using AI-based tools. People who aren’t computer professionals often have a view of AI that is based on what they have read in popular fiction and/or seen in movies, where the AI is often portrayed as a threat. Almost daily, there are news articles and online discussions that describe some of the pros and cons of AI. This has been true since the inception of the field. As late as the 1990s, writers like philosophers Hubert Dreyfus2 and John Searle3 and the physicist Roger Penrose4 argued that AI was impossible and that researchers should stop wasting their time. However, research has marched on, and in the past few years the criticisms of artificial intelligence have changed drastically. Critics have gone from worrying that we were wasting our time to worrying that we will succeed, and possibly succeed too well. While many researchers see the potential for AI to enrich our lives, many other people are being led to believe that the use of AI technology will lead to a future where humans are slaves to the machine. A popular question that comes up over and over again is whether AI is an existential threat to humanity. A May, 2016 discussion thread on the social question-answering website Quora asked this question, and drew hundreds of answers that were read by thousands of people5. Where the physicist Roger Penrose asked if AI was possible, less than 20 years later his most famous student, Stephen Hawking, stated in a 2014 interview with the BBC that “the development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race!”6 In two decades, critics have gone from arguing we shouldn’t pursue AI because it is impossible to arguing that we shouldn’t do AI because it isn’t! As we hinted at earlier, we are convinced that the truth lies somewhere in between. While it is easy to argue philosophy, the truth is much more complicated. AI can do, and 2 Dreyfus, H., “What Computers Still Can’t Do”, MIT Press, 1972. Searle, J., “The Chinese Room Argument”, April 9, 2014, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/chinese-room/. 4 Penrose, R., “The Emperor’s New Mind”, Oxford New University Press, 1989. 5 www.quora.com/Is-A-I-an-existential-threat-to-humanity 6 www.bbc.com/news/technology-30290540 3 6 CHAPTER 1 ■ INTRODUCTION: WHY THIS BOOK? does, some amazing things that can benefit mankind. The growing partnership of humans and computers working together has huge potential for good. It also, however, will inevitably cause social disruption and without people understanding its limits, the potential for harm is also high. Decisions will need to be made in the coming years that will have significant impact on our lives, and thus being aware of the trade-offs inherent in this technology space is important to understanding the world in which we will increasingly be living. In short, we believe that being AI knowledgeable is crucial to future online life. Thus, one of the main purposes of this book is to help you better understand AI, social networking, and some related technologies so that you can better understand, and more importantly, help to shape the social machines of the future. In this book, we will discuss how AI technology has evolved, what it can do, and what its limits are. We will describe how humans can benefit from using machines and how machines can benefit from interactions with humans. We also describe how the integration between AI and other technologies, particularly social networking, has become a mainstay in our daily lives and provide examples of how this cross-fertilization of technologies has the potential to benefit humanity. We will also look at the potential harm that, uncontrolled and unchallenged, it could do. By understanding the technology, we hope you, the reader, will be better able to make the decisions as to which paths to take and how we will get there. A Brief History of AI Numerous books have been written about the field of AI, including the provocatively named AI: The Tumultuous History of the Search for Artificial Intelligence by Daniel Crevier.7 In this section, we offer an abbreviated history that focuses primarily on the themes that we will be revisiting throughout the book, in order to give the reader an idea of the roots from which they derive. (Note that to save space, we omit many of the people and discoveries in the AI field.) Artificial intelligence is a branch of computer science that researches and develops theories, algorithms, and methodologies about the design and construction of “intelligent reasoning systems.” The term artificial intelligence to describe the emerging research discipline is often credited to a meeting that was held in 1956 at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire.8 (Terms such as machine intelligence, thinking machines, and other such descriptions go back further, and particularly in the UK, the field was already becoming controversial by the time of the US meeting). At this summer-long workshop, discussions focused on several aspects of AI problems, including a number of questions that will be discussed in this book: • Whether automatic computers of enough power to emulate the human brain could be developed (hardware aspects) • Whether artificial neural networks based on the architecture of the human brain might be designed 7 Crevier, Daniel. AI: The tumultuous history of the search for artificial intelligence. Basic Books, Inc., 1993. 8 McCarthy, J., Minsky, M., Rochester, N., and Shannon, C., “A Proposal for the Dartmouth Summer Research Project on Artificial Intelligence”, August 31, 1955, in AI Magazine, Vol. 27, No. 4, 2006. 7 CHAPTER 1 ■ INTRODUCTION: WHY THIS BOOK? • How a computer could be programmed to use a human language • How a computer could play games like checkers, chess, and Go • Whether a computer might be able to learn concepts, form abstractions, improve its performance, generate plans, deal with randomness, or be creative Many of the participants at the meeting, both organizers and students, are now considered the founders of the field, and went on to direct and influence the development of a variety of AI-based systems and algorithms. Early research in AI was often partitioned by two dominant philosophical approaches. One approach (often attributed to Allen Newell and Herbert Simon9) advocated that AI programs should be able to solve problems in ways that mimicked human problem solving. The other main approach (with primary proponent John McCarthy10) argued that the computer's approach and the algorithms it uses do not need to replicate human cognitive mechanisms, as evidenced in many of the early AI programs that could play checkers, chess, and other games. McCarthy argued in particular for the use of formal logics as the basis of building intelligent systems. The AI researchers who were trying to build computer programs that could solve problems like humans investigated how humans process sensory, perceptual, and cognitive data. Learning methods that are employed by humans, like pattern recognition, were used to program computers to analyze visual scenes (Oliver Selfridge11, Marvin Minsky12) and to classify objects and learn concepts (Earl Hunt13). Human neurological methods were used as the basis for learning theories (Donald Hebb14), to build classifiers (John Holland15), and to develop general machine learning methods (Geoff Hinton16). The way that humans use language was used to develop natural language understanding theories and programs like Terry Winograd’s SHRDLU17 or Roger Schank's MARGIE. Human problem-solving techniques and cognitive psychology research was also the basis for the development of early automated general problem solving tools and expert systems (Ed Feigenbaum18). Other approaches investigated the relationship of an artificial reasoning entity to a larger self-organizing system that, like the human brain, 9 Simon, H. A., and Newell, A., “Human Problem Solving: The State of the Theory in 1970”; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA. 10 www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/whatisai/, Stanford University, 2007. 11 Selfridge, O. G., “Pandemonium: A paradigm for Learning”, National Physical Laboratory, Symposium, No. 10, 1958. 12 Minsky, Marvin and Papert, Seymour; Perceptrons. An Introduction to Computational Geometry. M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1969. 13 Hunt, Earl; “Concept Formation”, Encyclopedia Britannica, www.britannica.com/topic/ concept-formation. 14 Hebb, Donald; The Organization of Behavior, Wiley and Sons, NY, 1949. 15 Holland, John, “Complex Adaptive Systems”, Daedalus; Winter 1992; 121, 1; Research Library, page 17. 16 Hinton, G. E. (2014); “Where do features come from?”, Cognitive Science, Vol. 38(6), pp 1078-1101. 17 Winograd, T., SHRDLU, 1968 (described at http://hci.stanford.edu/winograd/shrdlu/). 18 http://amturing.acm.org/award_winners/feigenbaum_4167235.cfm, 1994. 8

Author James Hendler Isbn 9781484211571 File size 2MB Year 2016 Pages 174 Language English File format PDF Category Engineering and Technology Book Description: FacebookTwitterGoogle+TumblrDiggMySpaceShare Will your next doctor be a human being?or a machine? Will you have a choice? If you do, what should you know before making it?This book introduces the reader to the pitfalls and promises of artificial intelligence (AI) in its modern incarnation and the growing trend of systems to “reach off the Web” into the real world. The convergence of AI, social networking, and modern computing is creating an historic inflection point in the partnership between human beings and machines with potentially profound impacts on the future not only of computing but of our world and species.AI experts and researchers James Hendler?co-originator of the Semantic Web (Web 3.0)?and Alice Mulvehill?developer of AI-based operational systems for DARPA, the Air Force, and NASA?explore the social implications of AI systems in the context of a close examination of the technologies that make them possible. The authors critically evaluate the utopian claims and dystopian counterclaims of AI prognosticators.Social Machines: The Coming Collision of Artificial Intelligence, Social Networking, and Humanity is your richly illustrated field guide to the future of your machine-mediated relationships with other human beings and with increasingly intelligent machines. What Readers Will Learn What the concept of a social machine is and how the activities of non-programmers are contributing to machine intelligence How modern artificial intelligence technologies, such as Watson, are evolving and how they process knowledge from both carefully produced information (such as Wikipedia and journal articles) and from big data collections The fundamentals of neuromorphic computing, knowledge graph search, and linked data, as well as the basic technology concepts that underlie networking applications such as Facebook and Twitter How the change in attitudes towards cooperative work on the Web, especially in the younger demographic, is critical to the future of Web applications Who This Book Is ForGeneral readers and technically engaged developers, entrepreneurs, and technologists interested in the threats and promises of the accelerating convergence of artificial intelligence with social networks and mobile web technologies.     Download (2MB) How to Create Machine Superintelligence Real-Time and Distributed Real-Time Systems: Theory and Applications Managing the Risks of Organizational Accidents Mind, Machine and Morality Team-Building Activities for the Digital Age Load more posts

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